the pens & free agency

I love this time of year. In little over an hour, the hockey world will no doubt be rocked by a wallet-fattening contract offered to a mediocre player who happened to have more shine on him than dust during the closing moments of the 2007-08 season. So goes July in hockeydom.

Most interestingly, and quite the contrary to my original predictions, Penguins GM and all-around good guy - Ray Shero - has offered contracts to each Marian Hossa and Brooks Orpik and was declined. At some point during June my gut told me that RS would have made quite an acceptable offer to one of our offseason big three (Malone, Hossa or Orpik). Now, the Pens are set see all three depart. Malone's already in Tampa, no doubt beachside drinking a tall, expensive cocktail. Hossa is expected to be the next to go, although there are still some unconfirmed rumblings that while he'll test free agency, he'll still give the Pens every chance to negotiate and may take less than he's worth to stay with a winning club. It's my experience that money can persuade in both directions, but what typically holds true in hockey is that good hockey players tend to be rich hockey players if left unsigned by July 1. The Pens aren't going to drop $7-8 million on this guy. So we'll wave a sorrowful goodbye to a heck of a hockey player. (Please, God, don't let him sign with the Rangers or Devils...)

I thought for SURE that if we didn't sign Malone or Hossa that we'd make every effort to sign Brooks. It's my opinion that the Pens could stand to lose Hossa and Malone and still be successful as long as they ponied up and offered Orpik a decent wage. Listen, the Pens have scorers. They have a fantastic farm system. They can recover from the loss of two top-six forwards. Before the Pens turned it around at about mid-season 2006-07, defense was a luxury. (Among the internet boards, the collective defense from about 2002-2006 was known as the "Comedy Central" blue line) Picture Brooks in a Sabres uniform about to unload out a thunderous hip-check on Crosby or Malkin. Things get a whole lot scarier than the mere loss of Hossa or Malone.

So now what? With those three most likely signing elsewhere, what other options do we have? The Pensblog put together a great list of free agents that may fit our system here. Here's my take on things:

First, make an effort to sign Brian Rolston. He's no Malone and certainly no Hossa, but he's a talented winger who's produced in one of the stingiest, defense-first systems in Minnesota. He's 35 years old and likely can't command the salaries our big three will.

Next, convince Sean Avery that he wants to play here. If and when the Penguins lose Laraque and Jarkko Ruutu, they all of a sudden look like pussycats. With no hulking defenseman and no lumbering, role-playing wingers, why not address the loss of a scoring threat and loss of tough guys in one move? Sure, Sean's gonna want paid. That's why I said convince.

If we need to replace Orpik, the Pens should first give a hard look at their minor-league talent, then call Dmitri Kalinin. He's no physical force, but he has some upside and he's very solid on the blue line. He'll probably come very cheap, too.

Finally, take a gamble. I'm looking at you Ladislav Nagy (you little instigator, you). He produced in Phoenix when he had some half-decent teammates (not that Phoenix was any good during his time there) but floundered on the AHL affiliate Los Angeles Kings. (Cmon, you really think Kings fans believe that they've been a true NHL team the past few years? Give me a break.) Nagy is the bona-fide high-risk, high-reward steal of free agency. (Sorry, Todd Bertuzzi) He's coming off a series of injuries that not only hampered my fantasy teams in years past, but will also hamper his quest for a lucrative contract. What's a one or two year deal going to hurt? He won't be expensive to roster and he won't be expensive to buy out if he flounders. Jason Williams should also be mentioned here. Do NOT sign both of them. It's one or the other.

Who shouldn't we sign? On the surface, Pavol Demitra looks like an interesting addition. He's a scoring winger, who can play center and could really gel with Malkin if given the chance. However, the fact that he hasn't played anywhere close to a full season since the lockout may prove that he's more risk than reward... Markus Naslund has groups in the area clammoring for a renewal of Pittsburgh marital vows. Granted he had hardly any support outside of the brothers Sedin in Vancouver, but he might be washed up. He could be an interesting pickup later in free agency, on the cheap... Oh, and GM's take note: Radim Vrbata IS a fluke...